Consumer Confidence in U.S. Probably Decreased to 5-Year Low
Written on March 25, 2008
Confidence among U.S. consumers probably fell to a five-year low in March as more Americans lost their jobs and gasoline prices climbed, economists said before reports today.
The Conference Board's confidence index fell to 73.5 from 75 in February, according to the median estimate of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report today may show home prices continued to sink at the start of 2008.
Declining stock and property values have also unnerved Americans, heightening concern spending will falter. Without consumers, which account for more than two-thirds of the economy, the slowdown triggered by the collapse in housing and credit markets is likely to deepen in coming months.
“The consumer is currently under heavy pressure,'' said Russell Price, a senior economist at H&R Block Financial Advisors in Detroit. “People have seen their buying power erode. There is likely to be further downside to come.''
The New York-based Conference Board is scheduled to issue its report at 10 a.m. Forecasts in the Bloomberg News survey range from 65 to 76 and the last time confidence was as low as projected was in March 2003.
At 9 a.m., the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home-price index is forecast to be down 10.5 percent in January from the same month a year earlier, according to the survey median.
Federal Reserve policy makers have lowered the benchmark interest rates and pumped money into the banking system to try to make it cheaper and easier for Americans to borrow and spend.
Fed Action
The central bank earlier this month carried out its first emergency weekend action in almost three decades and became the lender of last resort to the biggest dealers in government bonds. Two days later, it reduced the target interest rate by three-quarters of a point and acknowledged risks had increased payday loans.
“Growth in consumer spending has slowed and labor markets have softened,'' the Fed said after it cut the key rate to 2.25 percent. “The outlook for economic activity has weakened further.''
The cuts “are definitely serious medicine for the economy which is very sick,'' Michael Jackson, chief executive officer of AutoNation Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. car dealer, said in a March 19 interview with Bloomberg Television. “The consumer is under extreme stress.''
The number of Americans collecting jobless benefits swelled this month to the highest in more than three years as automakers, construction companies and financial firms fired workers. The economy lost 63,000 jobs in February, the most in five years, according to figures from the Labor Department.
More homes are also being foreclosed as the drop in values leaves owners owing more than a property is worth.
Loss of Wealth
For those still in their homes, falling prices lead to a loss of wealth that makes Americans less inclined or able to borrow to finance spending.
What's more, regular gasoline rose to a record $3.28 a gallon on average last week and crude oil reached a record above $111 a barrel.
Spending is already taking a hit. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent in February, the Commerce Department reported last week, the second decline in three months.
Consumer spending may grow at an annual rate of 0.5 percent this quarter, the slowest pace since the 1991 recession, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News.
Filed in: business.